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Jeroen Toet

Marie-Claire de Koning

Foresight

Scenario Planning.

Grip on the future

As an executive you are expected to provide direction. Now more than ever, while the outside world changes faster than ever before, uncertainties pile up: technology disrupting business models, geopolitical tensions destabilising markets, shifting societal expectations and increasingly volatile regulation.

Data is abundant, but direction is lacking. Signals are fragmented. Discussions in the management team get stuck in assumptions, beliefs or the issues of the day. Meanwhile, the uncomfortable feeling grows: how do we make well-founded choices for the longer term?

Our approach.

Scenario planning helps you regain control, not by predicting the future, but by better preparing your organisation for several possible situations.

In a structured process we map the most important external uncertainties together. We zoom in on the uncertainties that are relevant to your organisation and define your future playing field.

We look for uncertainties that have a major impact on your organisation, your business model and the goals you want to achieve. These core uncertainties form the basis for a set of sharp future scenarios. Each scenario is developed into a compelling story about the future. Each story offers opportunities, risks and options. Each story puts tension on your strategy.

Developing a set of challenging scenarios creates a shared view of the future. Together with your management team you build a shared language to discuss the future. Considered choices can then be made.

"The strategic trajectory with Jester contributed significantly to defining our strategy. Disruption in the media sector is huge, and the future scenarios sketching the possible media landscape five years from now led us to make sharper choices."
Sven Sauvé, Chief Executive Officer RTL Nederland

A scenario set.

We use a 2x2 matrix to develop scenarios. A matrix helps reduce complex uncertainty to four fundamentally different futures. Working with two critical uncertainties produces scenarios that are sharp enough to truly test strategic choices.

"A scenario is an extreme but plausible description of how the future could develop. Multiple scenarios are always needed to make sense of uncertainty."

The five steps of scenario planning.

Define the scope

Decide which questions about the future you want to ask, which time horizon and which stakeholders define the playing field.

Explore the environment

Map trends: technology, politics, economy, ecology and society.

Identify core uncertainties

Determine which uncertainties have major impact on your organisation and business model.

Develop scenarios

Develop extreme but plausible futures into compelling stories with opportunities, risks and options.

Apply scenarios

Determine strategic options: 'no regret' choices, challenging scenarios, or the best-fitting one.

Define the scope

Decide which questions about the future you want to ask, which time horizon and which stakeholders define the playing field.

Explore the environment

Map trends: technology, politics, economy, ecology and society.

Identify core uncertainties

Determine which uncertainties have major impact on your organisation and business model.

Develop scenarios

Develop extreme but plausible futures into compelling stories with opportunities, risks and options.

Apply scenarios

Determine strategic options: 'no regret' choices, challenging scenarios, or the best-fitting one.

Scenario planning in videos.

Watch the process step by step in six short videos.

Step 0

Introduction

Playlist

What are scenarios used for?

Which risks must we take into account?

What new solutions could we come up with?

Should we invest, and in what?

Scenario
Planning

Risk management

Strategy

Innovation

Stress-testing

Decision-making

Monitoring

Where should we bet? Which steps does who take, and in what order?

Are our plans truly future-proof?

How can we see changes coming and adjust in time?

What does it deliver?

At the end of a scenario project you have several inspiring, extreme but plausible 'stories of the future'. But you've also had a strategic conversation, developed a language and built a framework for decision-making. That brings calm and overview.

Your scenario set is also a radar: use it to spot change early, interpret it and respond. We are happy to support you with coaching, training, tooling or a fully managed trajectory.

Our book

Scenario planning in a week

Make future-proof choices in five steps. Read all about it in our book.

Order the book

AI scenario generator

A glimpse into your future

Imagine we had an all-knowing oracle for the future, what would you want to know about your organisation? Answer that question and our AI builds a first tailored 2x2 matrix.

Tip: the sharper your context and oracle question, the richer the matrix. Describe the sector, the key challenge and the time horizon that really matters.

Want to get a grip on uncertainty, set a robust strategic direction for the coming years, or simply curious what scenario planning could mean for your organisation?

The future cannot be predicted, but you can prepare for it.

Get in touch

References

Foresight in practice.

for IDA Foundation

Contingency and future scenarios for global health aid

for Infinitas Learning

Exploring the future of education in the AI era

for Mediahuis

Mediahuis takes steps towards the future

for ActiZ

Scenario planning in long-term care

for Rio Tinto

Navigating the future: Rio Tinto's 4.0 Pioneer Lab

for Koninklijke Bibliotheek

Coaching a scenario learning process for the KB

for Gezondheidscentra Maarssenbroek

Scenario planning with the supervisory board for strategic choices

for AFWC

Future housing scenarios for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area towards 2040

for Vechtdal Wonen

Future scenarios for Vechtdal Wonen

for Waterschap Rivierenland

Future scenarios for Waterschap Rivierenland

for RIVM

Future scenarios for the RIVM

for Vitam

How will people eat at work in the future?

for Onderwijsraad

Trend research for the Education Council

for BOVAG Rijscholen

Future scenarios for driving-school owner-directors

for RTL Nederland

Scenario planning as the basis for commercial strategy

for Olympia

Contingency scenarios for the Ukraine conflict

for Universiteit Twente

The future of work in an academic context

for Albeda

Scenario planning for an education strategy

for VNG International / Libanon

Scenario thinking in an international context

for Noord-Oeganda

Scenario planning for migration challenges

for VSNU

Scenario planning for an open access strategy

for TriviumMeulenbeltZorg

Scenario-based strategic choices

for Metropoolregio Amsterdam

Scenario planning for regional agenda setting

for Gemeente Den Haag

Enforcement scenarios for urban development

for MVO Nederland

Scenario planning for social-impact organisations

for Ter Steege Bouw Vastgoed

Scenario planning in the housing market

for Enexis

Scenario planning in the energy sector under uncertainty

for ZKN

Scenario planning and community development in healthcare

for Bredenoord

Online scenario planning and future development

for BOVAG & RAI Vereniging

Trend research in the mobility sector: from trends to action

for FNRS

Scenario planning in the equestrian sector

for Woonbedrijf

Scenario planning with an early warning system in the housing sector

for Scitech

Building impact, fit for the future

for RMIT University

Future-focused research and innovation

for Committee for Melbourne

Melbourne 4.0: future scenarios for a liveable and competitive region

for Department of Regional NSW

Scenario planning for the liveability of regional New South Wales

for AgriFutures Australia

Future-proof agriculture for rural Australia

for Energy Safe Victoria

Strategic roadmap and scenario planning

Knowledge base Foresight

Blogs & articles.

Article

Strategic wavelengths.

How do you tune in to your environment to make strategic choices?

The environment broadcasts signals on different wavelengths. The challenge is for your organisation to have the right antennae to pick up all those signals and tell them apart.

by Michiel de Vries

Article

Scenario planning in six steps.

A blog series by Jeroen Toet

A six-part series on building future scenarios: from scoping to adjusting course with scenarios. Click through all parts.

by Jeroen Toet

Article

The day of tomorrow, and what comes after.

Beyond the noise of the day: why scenario thinking calls for executive space in elderly care

Executives in elderly care are consumed by the day of tomorrow, which means the conversation about the day after structurally loses out. Scenario planning is not a luxury, it is an executive discipline that explicitly protects the space for the long-term conversation.

by Bas Schulten & Lara Koopman

Article

Navigating a changing world.

When giants fail: the exploration-exploitation dilemma

An Intel case study shows how an excessive focus on exploitation, and not challenging the organisation enough to see changes on the horizon, leads to strategic vulnerability.

by Michiel de Vries

Article

Ukraine and dealing with 'predicted surprises'.

What do Bill Gates and Otto Habsburg have in common?

Resilience is not about predicting developments or risks, but above all about anticipating and organising for their consequences.

by Michiel de Vries

Article

Specialist tools for uncertainty.

Choose the right strategic tool for each type of uncertainty

Not every uncertainty is the same. From business case to what-if scenarios to scenario planning: the right tool depends on the level of uncertainty.

by Michiel de Vries

Perspective by Michiel de Vries

The ravine everyone talks about does not call for standstill, it calls for action. On continuing to act strategically when the uncertainty is so great that a plan alone is no longer enough.

by Michiel de Vries

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