Scenario planning with an early warning system in the housing sector

Jester supported Woonbedrijf in updating and recalibrating their scenarios. We also built an online Early Warning System so Woonbedrijf can continuously monitor its external environment and adjust course in response to that information.

Woonbedrijf is the largest social-housing corporation in the Eindhoven region. Social housing is a sector in constant motion. Legislation changes frequently, and so do the quality and quantity of demand. Shifts in financial markets and construction techniques have a major impact too. Social housing performs an important public function and therefore has to be able to move with the many changes taking place in the region. Continuously monitoring the external and regional environment, and giving it a central place in strategy formation, is therefore essential.

Woonbedrijf has been a frontrunner here for years. They started building scenarios and monitoring the external environment via an early warning system long ago. This allows Woonbedrijf to develop future-oriented and future-proof strategy while still adjusting course when the external environment calls for it.

In 2015 Jester Strategy supported Woonbedrijf in recalibrating their scenarios. A new trend analysis, workshops, an online community and surveys showed that the scenarios were ready for an update. Certain uncertainties had become less uncertain, and therefore less relevant as a foundation for the scenarios. New uncertainties have since taken their place.

We also defined new indicators for an online early warning system together. This allows Woonbedrijf to periodically poll internal and external experts about which scenarios are becoming more likely and which seem to be losing relevance. Through the online community, Woonbedrijf can run this check at any moment and review and analyse the data in real time. By inviting both internal and external experts to use the online tool, Woonbedrijf can use the information not only to adjust strategy, but also to see where its own experts differ in view from external stakeholders.

The trajectory delivered four thought-provoking scenarios that will keep Woonbedrijf moving forward for years to come. An Early Warning System is now available online, allowing Woonbedrijf to keep monitoring the external environment and to hold the strategic dialogue about it with internal and external stakeholders. Building on the scenarios, Woonbedrijf also developed a scenario game to support that dialogue. In 2015 Jester also supported Woonbedrijf by stress-testing their Course Plan for robustness against the various scenarios.