Scenario thinking in an international context

Since the outbreak of the war in Syria, Lebanon, a country of just under eight million inhabitants, has taken in more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees. The refugees have no formal status and live spread across the country. With the arrival of the Syrians, pressure on municipal services such as waste management and water has risen sharply.

Commissioned by VNG International, Jester Strategy travelled to Lebanon together with Jaap Gräber to introduce scenario thinking. Future scenarios provide a neutral instrument to bring stakeholders into conversation with one another. In a country like Lebanon, sharply divided along the lines of religion and tribal affiliation, that is particularly useful. Because the scenarios describe the external context, they are more or less apolitical. They also invite free thinking.

The introduction of scenario thinking in Lebanon was very successful. The local VNGI team can add a new instrument to its toolbox, and the two participating municipalities immediately saw opportunities to apply the method to the topics of waste separation and wastewater transport.