Melbourne 4.0: future scenarios for a liveable and competitive region

Melbourne was known for years as the most liveable city in the world and saw strong economic development. Even so, that liveability is increasingly under pressure, and new developments such as the fourth industrial revolution bring new challenges for the Greater Melbourne region. What do those challenges look like, and how can the region prepare? Jester Strategy supported the Committee for Melbourne in answering these questions.

The Committee for Melbourne is Australia's oldest economic development organisation. For more than thirty years it has been bringing government, business and knowledge institutions together to strengthen the economic and social development of the region. That collaboration has contributed to Melbourne being among the three most liveable cities in the world for many years. The regional economy and employment also developed strongly. But reaching the top is one thing; staying there is a much bigger challenge, certainly in a world that is changing ever faster.

How do you stay competitive and liveable in a fast-changing, unpredictable world?

Melbourne's liveability has increasingly become a victim of its own success. Population and economic growth put ever more pressure on the city. At the same time the world is changing at pace. The Committee for Melbourne realised that past successes are no guarantee for the future. New economic power blocs are emerging, technological developments follow one another quickly and can radically change existing sectors. What does a fourth industrial revolution mean for a region like Melbourne? What opportunities and risks does it bring for the economy and for liveability? Exact predictions are not possible.

Developing future scenarios with stakeholders

That is why the Committee for Melbourne set up the Melbourne 4.0 task force. Jester Strategy supported this task force in analysing the strengths and vulnerabilities of the region's current economic system and in developing future scenarios.

Throughout the project a large number of stakeholders from the region shared their insights, both online and in person, on Melbourne's economic model, key trends and possible futures for the region in 2030.

Four scenarios based on geopolitical and technological uncertainties

The scenarios were built around two strategic core uncertainties.

The first core uncertainty concerned geopolitical shifts. Will the West remain economically and politically dominant? Will international institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation keep their influence? Or will the global centre of gravity shift eastwards, with new power relations and alternative international institutions?

The second core uncertainty was about the pace and impact of technological development. Will a disruptive technological revolution take place, with innovations developing exponentially and being broadly applied, so that the physical, digital and biological worlds increasingly merge? Or will technological progress develop more gradually, with an evolutionary and less disruptive impact?

Combining these two uncertainties produced four different future scenarios. Each scenario sketched a different future picture for the Greater Melbourne region, with its own opportunities and challenges for economy, employment and liveability.

From scenarios to strategic priorities

Based on the main challenges from the four scenarios, nine joint strategic priorities were formulated. These are themes that matter for preserving Melbourne's economic strength and liveability regardless of which future scenario becomes reality.

Several multidisciplinary task forces were then set up to work out strategic options and develop projects that contribute to these joint priorities.