Scenario planning in six steps.

Great! You want to get started on creating future scenarios. In all their enthusiasm, many people then immediately set about searching for all kinds of developments and trends in the external environment. However, an important step in a scenario process is often forgotten: scoping it properly. A good scope is crucial for delivering relevant, thought-provoking scenarios. Without setting the scope, the chances are high that you will not get out of the scenarios what you want to get out of them. The scenarios will then become like the answer of the supercomputer "Deep Thought" from the book The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

In this legendary book, Douglas Adams describes an intergalactic society in which the great questions of the past concerning death, war and health have been solved. Professions have been replaced by technology and many people have become philosophers. For thousands of years they have racked their brains over the answer to the ultimate question of "life, the universe and everything". In an attempt to arrive at the answer, they decide to build a computer, Deep Thought, that has to calculate the answer. After millions of days of calculating, Deep Thought presents the result: 42. This answer leaves the philosophers bewildered. Deep Thought explains that the answer is incomprehensible, because the philosophers had no idea what question they were actually asking.

It is the same with scenarios. If you do not ask the right questions that the scenarios should help to answer, the scenarios will not deliver the desired insights either. A good scope helps you to get useful answers. The scope defines the topics the scenarios should address, but also how far ahead in time the scenarios look.

What does the scope consist of?

The scope consists of four elements:

• Core question (and points of attention)
• Target year
• Boundaries
• Actors

Want to know more about these parts of the scope? Download the article here.

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Jeroen Toet is a senior strategist at Jester Strategy and co-author of the book Scenario planning in practice. For more than 10 years he has been helping organisations in the private and public sector make future-proof choices through a range of foresight methods, including scenario planning.

Questions about the article? Please contact Jeroen: j.toet@jester.nl or 06 11 451311.