Strategic roadmap and scenario planning

Energy, and electricity in particular, is a major topic in Australia. Especially when in a large state such as Victoria, where Melbourne is also located, power outages occur. As if the present were not challenging enough, the future of energy is even harder to predict. What does the future energy landscape look like? New technologies, geopolitics, consumer behaviour and societal change all play an important role. Because the future of energy is so unpredictable, Energy Safe Victoria (ESV), the government agency that oversees the safety of the state's electricity and gas networks among other things, decided to explore the future through scenario planning.

Jester Strategy supported ESV in developing scenarios for possible futures of Victoria's energy landscape. During the project a range of Australian and international energy experts were consulted. More importantly, a multidisciplinary ESV project team took ownership of building the scenarios and using them to formulate concrete new initiatives.

Different future energy landscapes emerged

Four scenarios were developed, with four very different energy landscapes for 2035. Two core uncertainties formed the axes of the scenario framework. The first core uncertainty was the pace at which energy innovations would be developed and adopted. Would new technologies bring a disruptive revolution to the energy landscape? Or would they remain niche in an energy landscape that had only gradually changed? The second core uncertainty was the growing legislative and regulatory uncertainty. Will a coherent, cross-party, long-term vision emerge with a stable framework? Or will energy remain a political battleground, with radical policy changes whenever the government changes political colour?

Developing options and a strategic roadmap

These four scenarios each brought their own opportunities and challenges for ESV. One scenario described a radically different, high-tech and decentralised energy landscape, calling for different skills and expertise from ESV. Another scenario sketched the old energy landscape falling into decline, in which ESV was challenged less on knowledge and more on the capacity to safeguard safety.

The project team then developed strategic responses to the various challenges from the scenarios. These responses were elaborated and tested against the scenarios to assess how future-proof they were and which ideas held up regardless of which scenario became reality. With the OGSM method the strategic responses were laid out and developed into a strategic roadmap for execution.

Monitoring change to keep the roadmap agile

Building scenarios brought together teams that had until then rarely brainstormed about the future jointly. It helped align future images and find shared challenges and opportunities. To make sure ESV stays aware of changes in the external environment, an Early Warning System was put in place to monitor developments. By tracking how certain indicators and signals evolve over time, ESV can adjust its strategic roadmap as it goes.