Foresight
Contingency Planning.
Prepared for a crisis, deciding as it unfolds
With contingency planning you learn to act better in crisis situations. Major crises rarely come out of nowhere. Many shocks are conceivable, but politically, psychologically or organisationally uncomfortable to take seriously. Think of grid congestion, an escalation around Taiwan or Greenland, a new pandemic, a trade war, a new armed conflict in Europe, or radical geopolitical shifts.
For executives these are 'predictable surprises': events you know could happen, but whose timing, shape and impact are uncertain. The mistake many organisations make is either to wait until the crisis arrives, or to rely on static playbooks. In reality, effective crisis management requires pre-rehearsed decision frameworks and the ability to adapt them in real time as the information picture improves.
Our approach.
With contingency planning we help your organisation prepare for the unexpected. 'What if' scenarios help you think several steps ahead, map possible opportunities and risks, and above all, already have plans in place.
We support organisations in two inseparably connected steps:
1. Rehearse 'predictable surprises'
We explore a limited number of plausible but disruptive what-if scenarios about how a predictable surprise could unfold. We design decision trees or escalation ladders with tipping points and triggers. For each what-if scenario we outline opportunities, risks and coping strategies for your organisation. We also rehearse the what-if scenarios with the management team to be able to react quickly and effectively.
2. Adaptive decision-making in the moment
When a crisis actually unfolds, focus shifts to gathering information and continuously updating the what-if scenarios. As a crisis develops, certainty about an 'end state' grows. Being able to anticipate this quickly delivers a major competitive advantage.
"Olympia engaged Jester Strategy after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Together we developed concrete crisis scenarios around the duration of the conflict and its impact on the labour market and sectors. This gave the board pre-considered options and calm decision-making under great uncertainty."
Crisis scenarios.
To arrive at usable crisis scenarios, we first map the various scenario paths. This reveals how a crisis can unfold step by step, which triggers lead to escalation and at which moments course-correction is required. We work this out in frameworks such as decision trees or escalation ladders. Below is an illustrative example of a decision tree around grid congestion, a 'predictable surprise' that many organisations currently face.
Example
Decision tree: what if grid congestion blocks our growth?
Trigger
Delay < 12 months
Coping
- Phase the investment agenda
- Shift peak load
Trigger
Delay 12–36 months
Coping
- Own generation + battery storage
- Energy hub with neighbours
Trigger
No capacity structurally
Coping
- Revise site strategy
- Scale down product mix
Action moment
As soon as the grid operator formally confirms the connection timeline, the organisation falls directly into the matching path, without having to decide again under pressure.
Get started.
Scenario paths
We map the paths through which a possible crisis can develop.
Crisis scenarios
We develop the most relevant and plausible crisis developments into concrete scenarios.
Coping strategies
For each scenario we determine which strategic responses and options are appropriate.
Action moments
We identify the moments at which decision-making, intervention or escalation is required.
What does it deliver?
Contingency management enables executives to decide faster and more consistently under uncertainty, without waiting for complete information. It creates calm, explainability and control in crises where facts, assumptions and choices keep shifting.
When is contingency planning relevant?
References
Foresight in practice.
Knowledge base Foresight
Blogs & articles.
The question is not whether the unexpected will happen, but when. Prepare yourself and make sure your choices are ready when it matters.
Those who anticipate, improvise less.
Ready for the next step?
Plan a no-obligation introductory call. We are happy to think along with you about your strategic challenge.
Schedule an introductory call