The black swan: be prepared for what you didn't see coming.

The term 'black swan' became well known through the book of the same name by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. For centuries, Europeans assumed that all swans were white, until black swans were found in Australia. One observation was enough to overturn a deeply held conviction. In a strategic context, the black swan stands for an event that seems unlikely, has major impact, and is often explained away afterwards: "we could actually have seen this coming."

You can never be prepared for everything. So the question is not: how do we prepare for it all? The question is: how do we make sure we are not completely surprised? In this article you will read which black swans are strategically worth your attention, and how to make your organisation more resilient against them.

This is part two of Jeroen Toet's blog series Strategic bird guide: bird language in the boardroom.

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Jeroen Toet is a senior strategist at Jester Strategy and co-author of the book Scenario Planning in Practice. For over 10 years he has helped organisations in the private and public sector make future-proof choices using foresight methods, including scenario planning.

Questions about the article? Get in touch with Jeroen: j.toet@jester.nl or +31 6 11 45 13 11.