Part 5 — Applying scenarios.

How future-proof are your plans?

Imagine you have just delivered a number of thought-provoking scenarios. Mission accomplished, you might think. No, it is not. Scenarios are more of a starting point than an endpoint. The real work now begins: thinking about what the implications of the scenarios are and, above all, how you can anticipate them as an organisation. A common mistake is for scenario users to pick one of the scenarios. Unfortunately that is not how it works. If only the world unfolded the way we wished. As an organisation, you have to take into account that each of the scenarios could logically occur. That means you have to weigh them all in the decisions you make.

There are broadly two main flavours for the use of scenarios. Some organisations mainly use scenarios to innovate, to generate new ideas. Other organisations use the scenarios mainly to test their existing plans: are we engaging in wishful thinking with our plans, or are we also equipped for other "weather conditions"? In other words, how robust is our strategy? These two uses can, of course, also be combined well. What new ideas can update your existing strategy so that it is better equipped for an (unpredictable) future?

In practice we see that organisations often choose a three-step approach: 1. Devising strategic options, 2. "Stress-testing" the current strategy and plans, and 3. Making concrete choices.

Want to know more about these steps for applying scenarios? Download the article here.

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Jeroen Toet is a senior strategist at Jester Strategy and co-author of the book Scenario planning in practice. For more than 10 years he has been helping organisations in the private and public sector make future-proof choices through a range of foresight methods, including scenario planning.

Questions about the article? Please contact Jeroen: j.toet@jester.nl or 06 11 451311.