Scenario­ planning.

Thrive in uncertainty

Although we cannot predict the future, there are ways to explore the range of plausible futures.

Our world is more complex, uncertain, and changing more rapidly than ever. Predictions are outdated the moment they are made. How can you make future-proof choices in a world like this? Scenario planning is a proven tool to help you make sense of and thrive in all this change and uncertainty.

Resilient, future-proof organisations do not predict one future, they imagine several and adapt. By exploring the ‘known unknowns’, scenarios expand your horizon and can shed light on your blind spots. Scenario planning facilitates a structured dialogue about the forces of change that are shaping the world we live in and the operating environment you will have to compete in. 

Learning about the future through developing and experiencing scenarios together sparks creativity and alignment in your organisation. Stress-testing current plans and new ideas with scenarios enables you to adapt to and thrive in a rapidly changing world. We can guide you in this journey.

When to use scenario planning?

Strategy formulation

Which strategic options should you select?

Strategy stress-testing

How future-proof is my strategy?

Risk management

What (new) risks can we prepare for?

Innovation

Which innovations are needed to be relevant in the future?

Monitoring

Identify and adapt to change early.

Big decisions

Will your major investment thrive in multiple scenarios?

The 6 steps to success with scenario planning

Step 1

Determine scope

A scope will provide focus. Which strategic questions and topics will you explore and how far ahead will you look?

Step 2

Explore external environment

What are the change drivers in your business environment?

Step 3

Identify key uncertainties

Which of the change drivers are most impactful but also difficult to predict? Which ones are deemed key uncertainties?

Step 4

Explore scenarios

Based on a scenario framework you will paint vivid pictures of plausible futures.

Step 5

Identify and test strategic responses

The opportunities and risks the scenarios will present will inspire new strategic options. Use the scenarios to stress-test these and/or your existing strategy.

Step 6

Monitor and adapt to change

Keep scanning your business environment and adapt quickly.

What we offer:

Whatever your goals are or who you want to share the journey to the future with, we got you covered. Ranging from training to scenario gaming, we have the right solution for you. We can help you do it yourself, but we also offer full-service solutions. Please reach out to find out how we can assist you.
Training

Whether you have plans to develop scenarios yourself, want to improve the foresight capabilities of your management team or board, or just want to have an educational and inspiring day with your team, we can provide you with a tailor-made training.  

Project

Ranging from a compact, week-long scenario ‘sprint’ to an extensive project engaging many stakeholders and staff, we can design and manage the project side by side with you. 

 

 

Tooling

Want to involve many people and collaborate independent of time and place? Our online scenario tooling is the solution for you!

Our solutions:

The Responsive Organisation Program
Responsive Organisation Program

Mapping your organisation’s exposure to change, exploring your future operating environment, developing an Adaptive Strategic Roadmap and building a monitoring capability. Our Responsive Organisation Program is an inclusive program that works with your teams across the organisation to create the tools and embed a culture to become an organisation that can recognise relevant signals of change, learn from them, and adapt in a timely fashion. 

Scenario Planning Sprint
Scenario planning sprint

A changing world and the uncertainty that it brings means that business-as-usual planning is no longer fit for purpose. However, getting your team aligned on what that uncertainty looks like – and what it means for your organisation – often proves elusive. Built to address these challenges, the scenario planning Sprint improves the focus and productivity of your strategic planning. A proven method for creating structure in uncertainty, scenario planning will provide you and your team with new and credible insights to stress-test your organisation’s strategy for the future.

Business model analysis
Business model analysis

How are changes in the economy, technology, society and the environment affecting your business model? Every organisation has a unique way of creating, delivering and capturing value. However, the trends that are shaping your operating environment are unpredictable and produce strategic uncertainties that impact your business model and your strategy. Together with your team, our Business Model Analysis will create a shared understanding and common language of your organisation’s core value proposition, how vulnerable it is to a changing future, and what you can do about it to be fit for tomorrow’s world.

Sander van Amelsvoort
Sander van Amelsvoort

Jester Strategy

Australia

+61 414 615 107

Bas Schulten
Bas Schulten

Jester Strategy

 

+31 6 46 10 01 51

Michiel de Vries
Michiel de Vries

Jester Strategy

 

+31 6 52 85 42 83