Contingency planning.

Step 1

Determine scope

The scope in contingency planning is a (particular) contingency: a future event or circumstance which is possible but cannot be predicted with certainty . This can for instance be a cyber security crisis, an impending war, or another event an organization wants to prepare for. In this step, the impact of the event on your organization is also defined.

Step 2

Explore external environment

The next step is to get to the bottom of the event and find all developments linked to it. Make an overview of all developments, for instance, using a PESTED analysis or Porter’s 5 forces. The trends identified will be used in developing narratives of how the event could unfold.

Step 3

Shape development paths and narratives

In step 3, potential outcomes are captured in logic trees or escalation ladders. Develop narratives of the end states or most likely outcomes. Describe key events and the impact on your organization in these narratives.

Step 4

Define responses

Based on the narratives, think of risks and opportunities for your organization. Then, brainstorm with colleagues and/or experts for risks and opportunities, and ultimately, contingency options to respond to those risks and opportunities. These options are then included in a contingency model.

Step 5

Execute and monitor

A great contingency plan is useless if there is no execution. Implement the plan and ensure someone is responsible for it, so it becomes an integral part of risk management, for instance. It is also important to monitor the event, so you know what the most likely narrative is and what to prepare for.