Earlier this year, our foresight experts Michiel de Vries and Jeroen Toet decided to convert their extensive scenario planning experience into a practical book. A lot of scenario planning books out there are great but often too academic and too lengthy. Not ideal for a strategist, entrepreneur or executive who wants to start exploring the future right away. Now Michiel’s and Jeroen’s book is available in English, in both paperback and eBook format. A book filled with handy instructions and templates to get you and your scenario team going!

Scenarios provide insights into uncertainty

For those unfamiliar with scenario planning, this foresight method is not about predicting the future but rather all about exploring and imagining multiple possible foresight. The most important uncertainties that could change your organization’s operating environment are at its core. For example, political shifts, new economic conditions, social fissures, technological breakthroughs or new entrants disrupting your market. When exploring the interplay between such external forces, you can imagine and chart multiple potential shapes of the future. All, of course, with their own opportunities and risks. Discussing these in advance will enable you to get a head start on strategic responses to these. Plus, if you already have a plan, use the scenarios to stress-test them. Are your plans future-proof?

Scenarios in a week

The book explains how you can develop your own scenarios in just five simple steps. The book teaches you how to scope, explore your external environment, identify key uncertainties, detail scenarios and make strategic choices based on those scenarios. A practical case will guide you through and workshop instructions and templates enable you to efficiently develop scenarios with your team, in a week if you want to. The world is more uncertain than ever, so use scenarios to thrive in that uncertainty!

The future is neither completely predictable nor completely random. In turbulent times like these, scenario planning helps you navigate the genuine contours of uncertainty. The approachable book ’Scenario planning in a week’ gives the practical guidance needed by strategists ready to wield the power of scenario planning.”

Jeremy Bentham – Retired Head, Shell Scenarios and Co-Chair (scenarios), World Energy Council